I like the Bulwark. It is a fountain of good insights into our complex political dumpster fire, currently smoldering and making people vomit orange puke. Tim Miller's talk with JVL is so relevant because it hits us in the stomach. And I think if you’re an adult in the room, it will probably hit you too. As the orange Nero sets fire to everything, where will we find ourselves when it’s all said and done? The future could become a source of despair in uncharted waters.
The American lack of imagination
Police detectives must be knowledgeable and have lots of experience, but a fine detective must have a fertile imagination. Critical thinking involves the ability to think of multiple scenarios. One can quickly imagine what can go wrong. To put it mildly, many Americans lack both imagination and critical thinking.
America's only rich imagination is to think they are the best at everything. But more than that, they believe the world follows everything America does. But the truth is that American exceptionalism is dying, and Trump is Putin the last nail in the American coffin. We are experiencing the greatest reordering of America’s place in the world. And our new place in the world might not be as comfortable as it used to be. We are in a “The future is no longer what it used to be kind of moment. But this is more serious than a simple joke.
In our deep lack of imagination, Americans fails to see that the world will reorder itself around us, and we’ll be left behind, and that the dollar will no longer be the most trusted reserve currency. And that the United States is not immune to turning into a larger version of a county like Hungary. (Tim Miller)
Barbecueing America’s Cash Cow
Out of this deep sense of entitlement and ignorance, America is setting fire to its most profitable business - the financial industry. The dollar (up to now) has been the world's reserve currency, a source of wealth Americans take for granted. It has been a profitable cash cow, giving out fat milk for years and years since the end of World War II.
In Europe’s tourism cash cow, Europeans only need to keep Europe clean, neat, and painted, and cash flows in. In America, we only need to keep being the safe, predictable, and trustworthy America that we always were. But a scammer president wants instead to be like China, screwing little screws on Iphones. They are either a collective of dumbasses, or this whole thing is some sort of scam. Maybe both?
Most Americans don’t realize what is going on or why the world buys treasury bonds and our debt. They do so because it is safe and they can trust us. But that is coming to an end. How can anyone trust a country that is allowing a madman to intentionally crash an economy, kidnap people at will, and send them to a gulag in El Salvador? Ultimately, how can anyone trust a country that elects convicted criminals for the presidency?
I will pull this out of my ass only once, but guess is safe to say that a large part of our wealth comes from this moneys invested in the United States by the world. We never experienced not having that. The U.S. is flush with cash. Something few other countries around the globe have the privilege of having. But we’re about to discover that our wealth is directly linked to our established place in the world, which we are about to flush down the toilet: the holders of free speech, innovation, freedom, and a strong rule of law. Say goodbye to all of that.
Who would trust America?
Who would trust America to be an allied partner when a TV show guy commands the head of the military? Who would trust America with intelligence when the head of the national intelligence has shown to be a Russian sympathizer? Countries could look away once, “that was a crazy thing that happened, it was an accident.” But after the insurrection and the convictions, the guy runs on those very things, tells everyone what he will do when he wins, and wins again. There is no way any other nation can trust us again for a long, long time.
Possible Scenarios for the Future of America
According to JVL, one of the most likely scenarios is some version of “we’ll somehow get through this.” He doesn’t believe this; he would rather believe this. And I also think we’ll get through it because opposing political forces in America are well-defined and can never be canceled entirely. We swing from one extreme to another and bounce back to some medium. And this is all evidenced by our history.
Let’s say after we emerge from Trump’s attempt to destroy democracy, we will look like a nation that still has the rule of law, that we don’t allow the government to kidnap people at will, and a country that still holds elections. Great, we survived, but at what cost?
The cost is that America's worldwide prestige and power will be reduced to a fraction of what the nation once was. A nation possessing next to nothing in global influence. Because our credibility will be lost.
This credibility is our greatest asset. If you’re an adult in America, our generation has never experienced living outside the culture of American exceptionalism. If America loses its place in the world trading order, we’ll have to adapt to other countries, not the other way around.
Can we even run budget deficits if we’re not the world's reserve currency? Are other countries willing to buy our debt? No. This could be a massive reordering of America’s place in the world. I don’t think in America anyone have their heads around this. But the entire rest of the world sees it. (JVL)
The harm has been done, and Americans will taste the bitter pill of poverty. Not many in America seem to realize where our source of wealth comes from. We somehow think it is our God given right to be rich. Instead, we think the world is taking advantage of America. We’re about to find out that the opposite is true.